is the iranian regime vulnerable?
Douglas Muir has a pretty good breakdown of exactly what makes a regime vulnerable to collapse – and more importantly, factors that make collapse unlikely. His verdict regarding Iran? The regime holds steady unless the guys with the guns change sides:
While there are some reports of unease among the security forces, it appears the police and the military are holding steady.
Until and unless this changes, Ahmadinejad looks quite secure — green paint and massive street protests notwithstanding.
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I don’t know what will happen, of course, but, most likely, it won’t be pretty.