Comments on: The Iranian Reformers Have Won: Now Comes the Danger http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/ Sun, 21 Mar 2010 02:01:10 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e73v1 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10626 Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e73v1 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:18:19 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10626 [...] The reformers have won. [...] [...] The reformers have won. [...]

]]> By: Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Monday Highlights http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10625 Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Monday Highlights Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:16:27 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10625 [...] The reformers have won. [...] [...] The reformers have won. [...]

]]> By: Katherine http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10575 Katherine Sat, 20 Jun 2009 20:52:54 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10575 I don't know if you're right... I don't have a lot of confidence the protesters will win out here... but it's an excellent and thought-provoking post. I'm finding it fascinating that the protesters are using the same methods - coming out to mourn those who were killed by the government, the mourners being attacked and (presumably over the next weeks) repeating the procedure - that were used to bring down the Shah. I don’t know if you’re right… I don’t have a lot of confidence the protesters will win out here… but it’s an excellent and thought-provoking post. I’m finding it fascinating that the protesters are using the same methods – coming out to mourn those who were killed by the government, the mourners being attacked and (presumably over the next weeks) repeating the procedure – that were used to bring down the Shah.

]]> By: Oldpilot http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10569 Oldpilot Sat, 20 Jun 2009 17:10:04 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10569 As Hemingway said in another connection: Isn't it pretty to think so? As Hemingway said in another connection: Isn’t it pretty to think so?

]]> By: Chris Dierkes http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10523 Chris Dierkes Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:56:36 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10523 yeah. khamenei really backed himself far too early into a corner by validating the election. I suppose that gives more credence to the view that he rigged the thing from the get go. I had been leaning towards a view where they saw the elections results coming in, freaked, and then called the thing off. But it seems more now he was hard charging this from the get go. I would ascribe that (if it's right) to 2 things. 1: Khamenei has always been oldschool anti-US. 2: He gave the Reformers a shot to negotiate under Khatami and Bush ignored them, sanctioned them, and put them in the Axis of Evil. Only Ahmadinejad (from Khamenei's view) has managed to keep the West off its game. So he wants him. That's my guess anyway, but who knows. But yeah once he said the election was divinely mandated, he couldn't well go back on that could he? yeah. khamenei really backed himself far too early into a corner by validating the election. I suppose that gives more credence to the view that he rigged the thing from the get go. I had been leaning towards a view where they saw the elections results coming in, freaked, and then called the thing off. But it seems more now he was hard charging this from the get go.

I would ascribe that (if it’s right) to 2 things. 1: Khamenei has always been oldschool anti-US. 2: He gave the Reformers a shot to negotiate under Khatami and Bush ignored them, sanctioned them, and put them in the Axis of Evil. Only Ahmadinejad (from Khamenei’s view) has managed to keep the West off its game. So he wants him. That’s my guess anyway, but who knows.

But yeah once he said the election was divinely mandated, he couldn’t well go back on that could he?

]]> By: Michael Drew http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10446 Michael Drew Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:17:48 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10446 Chris, would you agree that the Ayatollah's first-order OODA failure at a grand-strategic regime-survival level was deciding in advance to scuttle the election? He trapped himself in a loop of mis-orientation before the opposition had coalesced beyond standard politics, and in so doing gave rise to it as a corporeal reality? He mis-perceived a reformist victory as the real threat to survival, and instead opted for the greater dnager? Chris, would you agree that the Ayatollah’s first-order OODA failure at a grand-strategic regime-survival level was deciding in advance to scuttle the election? He trapped himself in a loop of mis-orientation before the opposition had coalesced beyond standard politics, and in so doing gave rise to it as a corporeal reality?

He mis-perceived a reformist victory as the real threat to survival, and instead opted for the greater dnager?

]]> By: Michael Drew http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10445 Michael Drew Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:08:36 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10445 Dude, OODA's the shiznit! Dude, OODA’s the shiznit!

]]> By: Michael Drew http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10444 Michael Drew Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:08:08 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10444 Forget about their being mothers and gfs -- it's they themselves in the first order who decide it. If the women themselves go one way or the other, that will decide it. Forget about their being mothers and gfs — it’s they themselves in the first order who decide it. If the women themselves go one way or the other, that will decide it.

]]> By: matoko_chan http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10440 matoko_chan Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:51:51 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10440 No Jaybird....the chinese population is fungeable. They could whack 2500 students and wound 20,000 and get away with it. They had spares. And the chinese didn't have realtime cyber propaganda.....and they didn't have a state religion. Khameini made it clear that there will be blood....that is very dangerous for him I think. The Assembly of Experts can remove Khameini. If he starts to slaughter Iranian citizens in the streets I think they will. That is going against Islam. The army and the police may intervene to stop the militias. I stayed up to watch the speech last speech last night......there were absolutely no women in the crowd of bussed in fundies. I put the success of the greens at 75%. The side without good looking protest babes can never win. ;) More seriously, the side without mothers and daughters and wives cannot win in the long run. Women have invisible power. No Jaybird….the chinese population is fungeable. They could whack 2500 students and wound 20,000 and get away with it.
They had spares.
And the chinese didn’t have realtime cyber propaganda…..and they didn’t have a state religion.
Khameini made it clear that there will be blood….that is very dangerous for him I think. The Assembly of Experts can remove Khameini. If he starts to slaughter Iranian citizens in the streets I think they will. That is going against Islam.
The army and the police may intervene to stop the militias.
I stayed up to watch the speech last speech last night……there were absolutely no women in the crowd of bussed in fundies.
I put the success of the greens at 75%.
The side without good looking protest babes can never win.
;)
More seriously, the side without mothers and daughters and wives cannot win in the long run. Women have invisible power.

]]> By: Jaybird http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/2009/06/the-iranian-reformers-have-won-now-comes-the-danger/#comment-10438 Jaybird Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:34:15 +0000 http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/?p=5592#comment-10438 I don't know, necessarily. I would have thought that Tank Man signalled the end of the Chinese government as-we-knew-it. I don’t know, necessarily. I would have thought that Tank Man signalled the end of the Chinese government as-we-knew-it.

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