You may be right. Romney won some states out West (where he is strong) and some uncontested ones but he just wears poorly. By all rights it should be his–he’s got the money, he’s got business background, well organized. But he just doesn’t have that thing.

No Republican won in the 20th (and 21st) century without Ohio. Could Romney win Ohio? Being a native Buckeye, I gotta say no. Romney could in theory put pressure on Obama out West (Nevada, Colorado shading purple/blue, New Mexico). But he’s weak in the Midwest.

In terms of whether Romney is a moderate or social con, he’s really a politician who’ll say anything. He ran in Mass where being socially liberal was popular so that’s what he was. He ran for GOP nomination and so he became a social con (in rhetoric). He just comes off so gimmicky–national security was in so he promised to Double Gitmo. He’s just very goofy. But the GOP nomination is much shorter than the Dems. If he wins NH, NV, then he needs to win Florida then it’s his.

I don’t think this is right at all. There’s little evidence from the primaries that evangelicals have a problem with Romney. He won most of the caucuses and the red states outside the south, which indicates that his popularity was strongest with the Republican base. The south voted for Huckabee, but I expect that’s mainly due to regional affinity rather than an antipathy towards Mormons. And Romney doesn’t need the south – he’s not a moderate (his statements in the 2008 primary were doctrinaire talking-point Republicanism) but he may be able to present himself as one due to his stint as Mass. governor and I don’t see anyone who has a better chance of winning primaries in the large blue states.

Barring some new, as-yet-unforeseen candidate, the nomination in 2012 will be Romney’s.

I dig the phrase well-coiffed grave. I think it was supposed to be set up for him in ‘08 but Huckabee ruined it. There are even less moderates and economic Republicans then there were last time. The social conservative component of the GOP is only growing. I don’t see how he wins them. They vote on personal identification (Reagan, Bush II, Huck/Palin) never mind Romney’s Mormonism which only makes it that much harder for him. As I said before, I really think to win the GOP is going to have to come with a different economic platform and Romney could never realistically sell a middle class outreach.

Contrary to popular belief, I think a viable third party is possible. If the Republicans can’t overcome the Democrat advantage, they may leave a vacuum which makes a third party a reality — especially, if the Democrats look like they have only about 40% support, and the independent numbers continue to grow. It would require a herculean organizational effort. I have to believe power brokers are talking about this behind the scenes.

My own sense is the GOP would do much better to drop its Reaganomics tax cutting mania and focus on the development of the middle class a la Douthat and Salam’s Grand New Party. Romney is not that guy. He’s clearly a plutocrat and into “flood-up” economics. Pawlenty could be that person as could Huckabee. Palin in theory could be as well I suppose, except she really wants to win over the paleo-libertarian crew with her emphasis on getting gov’t out and is playing the classic GOP card of getting middle class votes through culture war stuff while screwing them economically.