Random header image... Refresh for more!

Dean in 2012?

by Scott H. Payne

Take this for the completely unfounded speculation that it is, but listening to Howard Dean on the health care war path makes me wonder whether if he’s laying the foundation for a run at Obama from his left flank. I’ve no doubt that Howard Dean was speaking his mind on health care when he told liberals to kill the Senate bill, but given that a full-blown revolt beyond the very loud grumbling that is currently going on remains pretty unlikely and how politically savvy Dean is, one wonders whether there is any long-range posturing at work here.

In many respects, the Dean 2004 campaign blazed the trail for what Obama and his team did in 2008 and much of the flash of Obama’s campaign pretty squarely rests on Dean’s fifty-state strategy as DNC Chair. So as far as netroots-savvy, strategically competent, and relatively popular potential opponents go, Dean holds his own. I’ve got no crystal ball here, but listening to Dean on NPR this morning just got my wheels turning.

Given that I don’t do fantasy football picks, here’s my version: dream 2012 primary lineups.

Democrats

Barack Obama
Howard Dean
Evan Bayh

Republicans

Mitt Romney
Tim Pawlenty
Bobby Jindal
Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee

Share and Enjoy

Related posts...

Tags | 2012, barack obama, howard dean, Presidential election

6 comments

1 Lev { 12.21.09 at 1:34 pm }: Interesting theory, though I suspect it would be about as successful as Dean’s last bid ;) I’ve never trusted the guy, he always seemed like too much of an obvious opportunist to me. I might agree with him on most things, but he’s sort of like Romney minus the smoothness, especially since his record as Governor of Vermont was, ahem, extremely moderate.

And am I reading you correctly that you actually WANT Sarah Palin to run in 2012? I mean, it would be entertaining, and it could help dismantle the tea partiers if she got shot down by Romney, but if she got the nomination and had a currency spike…maybe not likely, but you never know.

Scott H. Payne
December 21st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
I would have throught that Dean’s run as DNC Chair would have helped you over at least a portion of that. He certainly seems to have earned some cred for himself in that regard. Plus, John Edwards ain’t running for anything ever again, so I’m not sure who better stands to offer a “progressive alternative” to Obama, if such a thing should come to pass (as seems at least somewhat likely).

As per Palin, yeah I’m interested in seeing how that would play out. Maybe it’s because I’m not directly involved, but I think it is the logical conclusion of the tea party movement and because, despite what she might say, I think there is a decent chance that it will, in fact happen. Watching she and Huckabee duke it out to begin with would be fascinating and if she made it on to the next round, seeing how she chose to approach her more moderate counterparts would be very telling, as would their approach to her. I think a Palin presidency run is, in many regards, a necessary tonic to shake out the real future direction of US conservatism.

Cascadian
December 21st, 2009 at 2:55 pm
What happens with the Paul contingency? Do you see one of your picks addressing his constituency, or do you think that sapling withers?

Scott H. Payne
December 21st, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Yeah, I don’t know. I don’t see an obvious home for them right now and I don’t think that Paul is likely to become a right-wing Nader, so… I suppose that it’s possible that Palin could pick up some of those folks, but I would guess, and this is very arm chair of me, many of them would head towards a third party (again?).

Mark would be the better person to respond in that regard.
2 kth { 12.21.09 at 9:27 pm }: Primary challenge to Obama: na ga happen unless his defeat is so certain that he needs to do a Truman/LBJ. Even in that eventuality, you want a Eugene McCarthy type (perhaps like Dean was in 2004, but he has a higher profile in the Democratic Party now) to deliver the message to the incumbent, then to basically disappear.

The way it would go is that Obama is so damaged that Alan Grayson is able to beat him in the Iowa caucus (vanishingly unlikely given Iowa’s role in Obama’s original progress to the presidency, but work with me;), Obama withdraws, real candidates (e.g. Hillary Clinton) get in, and Grayson becomes another historical footnote.

Seriously, Alan Grayson belongs at a distant #2 on your Dem depth chart, as he’s the likeliest person to challenge Obama in 2012 (Grayson probably won’t either, but he’s likelier than the others as he has less to lose from such a challenge than they (Dean, Bayh) do).
3 North { 12.22.09 at 2:54 pm }: Obama is going to have to take a -lot- more political body blows before he’s going to be vulnerable to a primary challenge. With the african american vote locked up unless his challenger is also african american (it’s crass to say but lets be real here) the only real passion would be a challenge out of the left field and that’d be pure poison to the neo-libs and centrists who’re mainly running the party machinery. I don’t see any chance of him being upset for his second term in the primaries. Best person to watch for this is Clinton. If she starts getting twitchy or making noises about dropping out of Sec’ State then there’s blood in the water.

On the Republican side it’s much more interesting (and relevant).
Obviously Mitt has the organization and the money but he’s a Mormon which is tough on the religious base support and also a very John Kerry like character with his background. On the other hand he’s got good rep, some moderate appeal and very importantly in this competition he’s the second place finisher to McCain and therefore the successor. The GOP is very hierarchy minded so Romney may have an in there. Especially if they’re looking for someone to play the Bob Dole role.

Pawlenty is essentially Mitt minus the Mormon. But he’s not very charismatic and frankly I’m dubious that he could deliver his home state. I live in Minnesota and he is far from loved here. Every election he’s squeaked by with the narrowest of victories against lackluster opponents.

I lump Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee together because they’re definitely the far right wing options and they’ll be appealing to the same voters and thus cannibalizing each other. Huckabee is death on stilts to the business conservative wing and Sarah is, uh, well lets face it, a moron. She lies a lot, which is par for the course for politicians but unfortunately she also lies rather badly which is going to cause her problems. The scary part is that if one of them could knock off or co-opt the other (a promise of the veep slot perhaps) then they could actually have a really good shot at the nomination.

I don’t know enough about Jindal to be certain but he’d have to deliver a lot better speeches than that lemon state of the union response. He’s ethnic which may be as big of a problem for him as it would be a boost. I’m pretty skeptical that he’s going to get any traction without some kind of achievements between now and then.

My humble prediction with this list: Romney and Pawlenty duke it out in the center. Huckabee and Palin duke it out on the right. Jindal muddles around as an interesting flavor candidate. Pawlenty probably goes down in the early states and drops out. If Huckabee and Palin both go into this race with both feet they could split the conservative votes in the early states and deliver them to Romney (I doubt Pawlenty can split the moderate vote. The people with the biggest problems with Romney won’t be considering him at all if Palin or Huckabee are in the race). Jindal fiddles around some more and probably will run as long as he has some money. Assuming Sarah and Mike hang tough then Romney sews up the nomination after the first half dozen states. If Sarah or Mike drops out early then Romney actually is going to have a fight on his hands.

If it’s Mike or Sarah that’s selected then Obama spends 2004 campaigning on behalf of endangered Dem Senators and Congressmen and wins easily, his base will turn out in horror at the thought of Sarah or Mike so Obama can stay in the center and make pretty speeches. If the economy is up he may landslide. If it’s down he might have to try a little to win.

If it’s Mitt then Obama probably will probably deign to campaign. No hope in hell for Mitt if the economy is up or on an upward trajectory and it’ll probably be Dole vs Clinton all over again. If the economy is down or there’s some black swan going on with the Wars then Obama will have an actual fight on his hands.