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Post-election ruminations

So let’s see – in Virginia a life-long social conservative, Bob McDonnell, ran as a pragmatist and beat the tar out of  Democrat Creigh Deeds.  Exit polls show a majority of Virginians still support President Obama.  In New Jersey, voters were fed up with incumbent Jon Corzine, despite Obama’s best efforts to prop up the incumbent Democrat.  Republican Chris Christie won that race, even though exit polls in that state showed overwhelming approval rates for the President.

And in the much-ballyhooed NY-23 special election, Conservative Party candidate, and self-proclaimed Glenn Beck acolyte, Doug Hoffman was given the smackdown by Democrat Bill Owens.

Now, I would draw from this Democratic victory in a traditionally Republican area – the first Democrat to represent New York’s North Country in over a century – a few observations.

First, what works for conservatives in Texas or Georgia might not work for conservatives in California or New York.  One of the lovely things about conservative philosophy is its emphasis on local politics.  Dede Scozzafada may not have been red enough meat for the likes of Sean Hannity or Michelle Malkin, but she might have been just the right shade for northern New Yorkers.  Doug Hoffman, on the other hand, might have fit in better somewhere else.  Really, it was a northern New York affair.  The national Republican meddling distorted the issues on the ground.  Left alone, Scozzafada may very well have beat Owens, giving the GOP a much-needed seat in the House – even if she wasn’t of purest stock.  Remember, in Virginia, the Republican candidate campaigned on fiscal and economic issues – as a pragmatic leader, not as a red meat social conservative.  And he won.

Second, even a liberal Republican is much more likely to vote with Republicans on issues than a moderate Democrat.  Party loyalty cannot be underestimated here.

So what does the conservative movement take from this loss amidst all this victory? [Read more →]

November 4, 2009   21 Comments

Why I Voted For Daggett

While I don’t think Corzine’s been as bad for New Jersey as most people seem to think (the Dems in the Assembly and Senate being a much different story), there was never any chance I was going to vote for him this year on divided government grounds.  Since I’ve become something of a proud proponent of divided government, this would seemingly make Chris Christie (who’s not only a firstie-firstie, but a firstie-firstie girlie-girlie) the only realistic option.  But then a third party candidate, Chris Daggett started making a sizable dent in the polls.  Meanwhile, I could never figure out what Christie was actually for beyond some platitudes about lower taxes, eliminating “wasteful” spending, and ponies for everyone.  Ultimately, I came to the conclusion that even with divided government, Christie will still be a mess as a governor, for pretty much the same reasons that Bush was a mess as a President even with divided government.  This pretty well explains why:

Lonegan didn’t disappoint. The crowd in the VFW hall, fueled by hot dogs and beer, went wild as the former Bogota mayor launched into his typical Tea Party  tirade against big government. Next up was Kim Guadagno, the No. 2 on the ticket. Guadagno, who grew up in Iowa, started by praising the country music played by the excellent band on the stage behind her. Then she spotted me in the audience. “Hello, Paul,” Guadagno said. “I’m going to tell you a little  bit about the plan we have here in New Jersey. We have a plan.”

A property-tax plan? I’d been pestering her and Christie to come up with one since summer. Better late than never, I thought. But it was not to be. She changed the subject and before long the band was playing country music again.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: until Republicans figure out what they’re for, they’re going to continue having serious problems with good governance.

Compare that to Mr. Daggett (especially here).  While I’ve got my share of disagreements with the guy, I’ve got little difficulty figuring out what he’s for, and every reason in the world to think he’d be an effective governor even with a potentially hostile legislature.

UPDATE: Extra credit for the first commenter to figure out the cinematic origin of the term “firstie-firstie girlie-girlie.”

November 3, 2009   27 Comments